Making Sense of Trends

The Interest rates are at a record low.  Housing prices are low and occasionally teetering on lower.  Foreclosures have not gone away and won’t for the next couple of cycles.  There seems to be no clear indication of anything, or said a different way, there seems to be a case that can be made for any wild interpretation of the trends.  Locally here in Texas and even closer in North Texas and the DFW area things are not as bad as they have been in other parts of the country.  So what, I say, when you are feeling the pinch and having difficulty keeping your house or getting that house you are feeling the pinch. Pain is local and by that I mean, if you feel it is real and it doesn’t matter if it is better here statistically than in other areas, it is still pain.  So too for the Realtors® scrambling around to get the next lead, deal or closing.  Pain and success are measured on an individual and case-by-case basis.  Here is what the trends in our area have to say about last month.  As always I think the great people at Republic Title for their compilation of these statistics.

Looking at the first chart I can see that the Tax Credit did have a positive effect on the sales in the last quarter of the year.  The good news is that it hasn’t dropped below 2009 levels this year and trending downward. The status quo can be looked at as a plus.  No one can predict the future we can just look at all the various statistics and come to our own conclusions.  My feeling is that with low interest rates and growing number of houses on the market and a trending lower on prices that it still is a great time to buy a home.  I wonder if the more desirable neighborhoods, those with the better schools are the ones that are up.  We would have to come down from the 500000 foot view to make sense of neighborhood trends.

What is interesting to me about the second graph is that the majority of sales were outside the normal price range of 150,000 to 250,000.  In June the majority of sales were at the higher end scale.  To me it was a time when people ready to make the move took the month after the crush of the tax credit to take advantage of the low rates and the dropping prices.  The prices in the upper range have been the most hurt in our local real estate market through the downturn.  It is nice to see that all the sectors are getting their day in the sun of better numbers and more sales.    Look at how consistently low the numbers are in the price ranges as it slides up from the bottom. There is some activity everywhere and that is also a good thing.  In almost every sector there was a growth in sales over the year before.  This has translated to an overall growth for June over last year of 9%, I see that as a good thing.  There is still a slightly high inventory of homes and that will likely grow, but it isn’t too bad.  Prices should remain stable, or slightly dip, but this is always a case by case scenerio and no statistic gives you a specifically accurate picture of your personal situation. That is why you find a good professional to work with and have that discussion.